Soldiers of Democracy? Military Legacies and the Arab Spring

Oxford University Press, July 2023. Available through Amazon and OUP.

 

APSA MENA Best Book Award

APSA IS Robert Jervis Best International Security Book Award

 

Abstract  

Why do some militaries support and others thwart transitions to democracy? After the Arab Spring revolutions, why did Egypt's military stage a coup to end the transition? Conversely, why did Tunisia's military initially support the transition, only to later facilitate the elected president's dismantling of democracy?

This book argues that a military’s behavior under democracy is shaped by how it had been treated under autocracy. Autocrats who had empowered their militaries, securing their loyalty through a share of power and wealth, create militaries who fear that democratization will encroach on their privileges. Empowered militaries are thus more likely to repress pro-democracy uprisings, and if that fails, to stage coups against new democracies. Where autocrats had instead marginalized their militaries, democratization is considerably easier. Yet, marginalized militaries still carry risks of their own, being less able to prevent a descent into civil war, and more easily coopted into incumbent takeovers. In short, the dictator’s choice to either empower or marginalize the military creates legacies that shape the likelihood of democratization and the forms by which it breaks down.

This book illustrates this theory through detailed case studies of Egypt and Tunisia, drawing on over 140 interviews with civilian and military leaders and three surveys of military personnel. It also probes the generalizability of the theory through a cross-national analysis of all countries between 1946-2010. Overall, the book brings the military front and center to the study of democratic transition and consolidation.

This project received support from the Project on Middle East Political Science, the Smith Richardson Foundation, and the National Science Foundation.

بالعربية: اقرأ هنا مقتطفاً قصيراً عن الجيش التونسي الذي كتبته لجمعية قدماء ضباط الجيش الوطني في عام 2018.

 

Fieldwork

marzouki.jpg

Interview with President Moncef Marzouki

aaoan.jpg

Retired Officers Association

Interview with General Habib Ammar

 

Surveys

Replication data, code, and appendices describing survey methodology are available on Harvard Dataverse.

 

Survey 1

A survey of 72 retired senior officers from Tunisia’s Retired Officers’ Association. The figure above shows overwhelming agreement that former President Ben Ali neglected and counterbalanced the military, while discriminating in favor of a minority of officers from the coast.

Survey 2

A survey of 271 current and former Tunisian military personnel. The figure above shows that a plurality believed the Troika government (2011-13) enhanced the military’s material and political power, and ended the favoritism of the coast.

Survey 3

A survey of 2171 current and former Egyptian military personnel. The figure above shows that the majority believed President Morsi (2012-13) encroached on the military’s security decisions, economic contracts, constitutional powers, and secular identity.

 

Cross-National Analysis

Replication data and code for reproducing all tables and figures are available on Harvard Dataverse.

 

Coup-Proofing Strategies

For dictators, both empowering or marginalizing the military can be effective coup-proofing strategies.

Revolutions

However, empowered militaries are far more likely to indiscriminately repress mass uprisings against the dictator.

Coups against Democracy

Empowered militaries are also far more likely to stage coups against new democracies.

 

Recorded Talks

 
 

Egypt

Presentation at POMED on why Egypt’s military staged a coup on July 3, 2013 (Chapter 7 of the book).

 

Book

Presentation at George Washington with Amb. Gordon Gray

Tunisia

Presentation at Brookings on why Tunisia’s military supported the president’s coup on July 25, 2021 (Chapter 11 of the book).

 

Book

Presentation with Marc Lynch at the POMEPS podcast

Excerpts

 

Excerpt for Brookings on the cross-national analysis (Chapter 3)

Excerpt for New Lines Magazine on Tunisia’s revolution (Chapter 9)

 

Excerpt for Journal of Democracy on why some militaries support self-coups

Advanced Praise

"A country's chances of getting and keeping democracy are indelibly shaped by men with guns. In this extraordinary, multi-method study of civil-military relations in two Arab polities, Sharan Grewal argues that in Egypt, a military that had long been politically central under dictatorship fought tooth and nail against attempts to upend the old order, while in Tunisia, a military that had been kept small and weak by a jealous dictator saw in democracy a chance to shine. The result is that Egypt's democracy never got off the ground, while Tunisia enjoyed 10 years of democracy - before its military got a better offer. This book singlehandedly puts the role of militaries in political development back at the top of the agenda of comparative politics scholars."

- Tarek Masoud, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University


"Elegant and insightful, Soldiers of Democracy offers a compelling theory that explains when the military is likely to support a country's transition to democracy and when not. Anchored in rich empirical analysis of the Tunisian and Egyptian cases and bolstered by multi-case comparison, Grewal offers a masterful contribution to the lively debate on the military's role in politics. A model piece of research."

- Eva Bellin, Myra and Robert Kraft Professor of Arab Politics, Brandeis University


"In this important book, Sharan Grewal highlights the importance of civil-military relations in the prior autocratic regime in explaining military reactions to democratization. In bringing the military back into the study of nascent democracies, Grewal has revived interest in a crucial set of actors, and in focusing on their history, he has helped explain divergent behavior that would otherwise be puzzling."

- Donald L. Horowitz, James B. Duke Professor of Law and Political Science Emeritus, Duke University


"Too often contemporary scholarship on authoritarianism neglects civil-military relations. In his new book, Sharan Grewal shows why the military deserves centerstage. Drawing on interviews and original surveys, he demonstrates how the methods through which leaders control the military under autocracy - whether they empower or marginalize it - profoundly affects the military's response during democratic transitions. Grewal's Soldiers of Democracy is sure to be a defining work on the Arab Spring and on the military's role in democratization."

- Risa Brooks, Allis Chalmers Professor of Political Science, Marquette University


"Sharan Grewal's comprehensive comparison of how the Tunisian and Egyptian militaries reacted to the Arab Spring uprisings is invaluable for understanding why they diverged so dramatically. The incisiveness of Grewal's analysis is as impressive as the scope of his research. Everyone interested in the successes and failures of the Arab Spring should read this superb book to better understand the Middle East and North Africa today."

- Gordon Gray, U.S. Ambassador to Tunisia, 2009-2012


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